Politics is a messy sport. 260 Franklin Street, Suite 1860, Boston, MA 02110 100 Pine Street, Suite 1250, San Francisco, CA 94111 1735 20th Street N.W., Washington, DC 20009 24A Trolley Square, Suite 2142, Wilmington, DE 19806 Personal Life: Affair, Girlfriends, Wife, Kids. [68], As a CNET reporter wrote on election eve, "Even though Silver launched the site as recently as March, its straightforward approach, daring predictions, and short but impressive track record has put it on the map of political sites to follow. [108], Silver's self-unmasking at the end of May 2008 brought him a lot of publicity focused on his combined skill as both baseball statistician-forecaster and political statistician-forecaster, including articles about him in The Wall Street Journal,[109] Newsweek,[110] Science News,[111][112] and his hometown Lansing State Journal. But Silver's blog has buoyed more than just the politics coverage, becoming a significant traffic-driver for the site as a whole. Jason Zengerle, "The. He also correctly predicted the winners of every U.S. Senate race. Silver further developed PECOTA and wrote a weekly column under the heading "Lies, Damned Lies". But instead what will happen is that people will just be more confident in their dubious narratives and hot takes. Silver set out to analyze quantitative aspects of the political game to enlighten a broader audience. Silver recalls the scenario: 'I know the polls show it's really tight in NC, but we think Obama is going to win by thirteen, fourteen points, and he did. Obama then had an estimated 61.8% chance of winning a majority. [3], On November 1, 2007, while still employed by Baseball Prospectus, Silver began publishing a diary under the pseudonym "Poblano" on the progressive political blog Daily Kos. Earlier this year, approximately 1 percent of visits to the New York Times included FiveThirtyEight. The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't - Kindle edition by Silver, Nate. Silver was born in East Lansing, Michigan, the son of Sally (née Thrun), a community activist, and Brian David Silver, a former chair of the political science department at Michigan State University. For an interview conducted at this meeting, see "Nate Silver: What I Need from Statisticians". It happened Sunday on Twitter after the president’s firstborn son came across a Nov. 10 exchange on the social platform between Silver and MSNBC’s Chris Hayes. The answers are probably obvious in some sense where health is an area where I’ve not done a lot of work personally, but I’m sure it’s incredibly valuable. [10][11] In 2012 and 2013, FiveThirtyEight won Webby Awards as the "Best Political Blog" from the International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences. [71], Barack Obama's 2008 presidential campaign signed off on a proposal to share all of its private polling with Silver. It was 1984, the year the Detroit Tigers won the World Series. Carole Cadwalladr, "Nate Silver: it's the numbers, stupid". Silver said people may need to accept that polls are an indicator of political trends, albeit one with uncertainties built into their findings. Copyright © 2020 HuffPost.com, Inc. "HuffPost" is a registered trademark of HuffPost.com, Inc. All rights reserved. Josh Putnam, "The Electoral College Map (11/6/12): Election Day", Swing states in the 2012 election were Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. He correctly predicted the winner in 34 of the 37 contested Senate races. Nate Silver, "New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats". I should have taken half an hour to think about that. So if I were to vote, it would be kind of a Gary Johnson versus Mitt Romney decision, I suppose. John F. Harris, "The Most Powerful People On Earth: My Picks: Bloggers". [23], In 2000, Silver graduated with Honors with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics from the University of Chicago. PECOTA projections were first published by Baseball Prospectus in the 2003 edition of its annual book as well as online by BaseballProspectus.com. He barely slept the last couple weeks of the campaign—'By the end, it was full-time plus'—and for that matter, he says he couldn't have kept it up had the campaign lasted two days longer. At that time, Silver began to drop hints that after 2012 he would turn his attention to matters other than detailed statistical forecasting of elections. Others piled on the president’s son because ... do you need a reason? [140], In 2015, Silver appeared on the podcast Employee of the Month, where he criticized Vox Media for "recycling Wikipedia entries" in their content. [99] Josh Jordan wrote in National Review that Silver clearly favored Obama and adjusted the weight he gave polls "based on what [he] think[s] of the pollster and the results and not based on what is actually inside the poll". If polls are becoming less accurate—it's not clear they are but leave that aside for a moment—people basically just need to accept that there's more uncertainty. He analyzed the speed of the change of public sentiment, pointing out that the change over only several decades has been palpable to the current generations. After resigning from KPMG in 2004, he took the position of Executive Vice-President, later renamed Managing Partner of BP. He thinks Biden won already and it's obvious, so if you're a Biden supporter go out and celebrate, and presumably, turn your damn tv off for awhile. [34] Silver set out to analyze quantitative aspects of the political game to enlighten a broader audience. Within a couple of months we'll launch a podcast, and we'll be collaborating with ESPN Films and Grantland to produce original documentary films. 'I'm 97 percent sure that the FiveThirtyEight model will exist in 2016,' he says, 'but it could be someone else who's running it or licensing it.'"[58]. After a post-election appearance by Silver on Joe Scarborough's Morning Joe, Scarborough published what he called a "(semi) apology", in which he concluded: I won't apologize to Mr. Silver for predicting an outcome that I had also been predicting for a year. Nate Silver, "Choose Obama's Re-Election Adventure". Each of these models relied initially on a combination of electoral history, demographics, and polling. Brian Stelter, "Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight Blog Is to Join ESPN Staff". This article is from the archive of our partner .. Nate Silver, famous for his eerily accurate election predictions, is dumping the Gray Lady for the network of Keith Olbermann. William Kristol, "Obama's Path to Victory". 'We write our [Baseball Prospectus 2009] book from now through the first of the year,' [Silver] said. [80], On the morning of the November 6, 2012, presidential election, the final update of Silver's model at 10:10 A.M. gave President Barack Obama a 90.9% chance of winning a majority of the 538 electoral votes. 'I have a week to relax and then it gets just as busy again. This fall, visits to the Times' political coverage (including FiveThirtyEight) have increased, both absolutely and as a percentage of site visits. [51] He published a post-mortem after the tournament, comparing his predictions to those of alternative rating systems. I have tried to disclose as much about my methodology as possible". [18][19], Silver showed a proficiency in math from a young age. "[104] Colby Cosh wrote that the model "is proprietary and irreproducible. Our team also has a broad set of skills and experience in methods that fall under the rubric of data journalism. In March 2008, Silver established his blog FiveThirtyEight.com, in which he developed a system for tracking polls and forecasting the outcome of the 2008 general election. Nate Silver, "The Fundamentals Now Favor Obama". Trump Jr. hasn’t responded to Silver’s comeback, but he has a long history of posting tweets that backfire in his face, as well as spreading disinformation about the 2020 election. Silver Lake and Sixth Street's combined stake in the company is now worth about $1.08 billion, assuming the firms exercise their warrants. Of the 37 gubernatorial races, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the winner of 36. Although Silver put a "toss-up" tag on the presidential election in Florida, his interactive electoral map on the website painted the state light blue and stated that there was a 50.3% probability that Obama would win a plurality of the state's votes. [82][83] Silver, along with at least three[84] academic-based analysts—Drew Linzer,[85] Simon Jackman,[86] and Josh Putnam[87]—who also aggregated polls from multiple pollsters—thus was not only broadly correct about the election outcome, but also specifically predicted the outcomes for the nine swing states. But mostly we learn about failures. Japhy Grant, "Nate Silver on African-Americans, Prop 8. and Being A Hero to Gays & Geeks Everywhere", International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences, Barack Obama's 2008 presidential campaign, FiveThirtyEight § 2010 U.S. mid-term elections, "The World's 100 Most Influential People", S.I. BROOKLYN, N.Y. — The Northeast is taking shelter from today’s uncertainty and furor today beneath what has emerged as a key security blanket for this embattled region: Nate Silver’s blog. He applied sabermetric techniques to a broad range of topics including forecasting the performance of individual players, the economics of baseball, metrics for the valuation of players, and developing an Elo rating system for Major League baseball. But FiveThirtyEight's growth is staggering: where earlier this year, somewhere between 10 and 20 percent of politics visits included a stop at FiveThirtyEight, last week that figure was 71 percent. With 22 offices, more than 1,700 attorneys and 50-plus practice areas, Skadden advises businesses, financial institutions and governmental entities around the world on their most complex, high-profile matters, providing the guidance they need to compete in today’s business environment. PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) is a statistical system that projects the future performance of hitters and pitchers. [45], While maintaining his FiveThirtyEight.com website, in January 2009 Silver began a monthly feature column, "The Data", in Esquire[46] as well as contributed occasional articles to other media such as The New York Times[47] and The Wall Street Journal. 'I was just frustrated with the analysis. I think that's important. Stephanie Clifford, "Finding Fame With a Prescient Call for Obama". I should have taken half an hour to think about that. [26], In 2003, Silver became a writer for Baseball Prospectus (BP), after having sold PECOTA to BP in return for a partnership interest. But I do need to tell Nate I'm sorry for leaning in too hard and lumping him with pollsters whose methodology is as rigorous as the Simpsons' strip mall physician, Dr. Nick. On November 1, 2007, while still employed by Baseball Prospectus, Silver began publishing a diary under the pseudonym "Poblano" on the progressive political blog Daily Kos. A discussion of Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise, about the seductiveness of data and the inherent bias of modelers toward more recent and thus less robust data, and the superiority of … The accuracy of his predictions won him further acclaim, including abroad,[70] and added to his reputation as a leading political prognosticator. Out has named Nate Silver its Person of the Year, and the resulting profile by editor Aaron Hicklin is an endearing portrait of a dude who is doing well at life by being so right all the time. Stephen J. Dubner, "FREAK-Quently Asked Questions: Nate Silver". Like us … [187] While in college he served as an expert on Scoresheet Baseball for BaseballHQ. [16][17] Silver's mother's family, of English and German descent, includes several distinguished men and women, including his maternal great-grandfather, Harmon Lewis, who was president of the Alcoa Steamship Company, Inc.[18] Silver has described himself as "half-Jewish". I think a measurement tool that's simultaneously becoming more common and accessible and also less accurate is a pretty bad combination. Nate Silver, "The Most Livable Neighborhoods in New York: A Quantitative Index of the 50 Most Satisfying Places to Live". Leon Neyfakh, "Nate Silver Signs With Penguin In Two Book Deal Worth About $700,000". Hannah Hayes, "What Will Nate Silver Do Next?". "Rasmussen Reports to Partner with FiveThirtyEight.com". Nate Silver, "Random, Pretentious Observations from Europe". During the last year of FiveThirtyEight's license to The Times, it drew a very large volume of online traffic to the paper: The Times does not release traffic figures, but a spokesperson said yesterday that Silver's blog provided a significant—and significantly growing, over the past year—percentage of Times pageviews. 'I was just frustrated with the analysis. Aaron Hicklin, "Nate Silver: Person of the Year". [103], Silver's nondisclosure of the details of his analytical model has resulted in some skepticism. But the 2016 G.O.P. [52], In April 2010, in an assignment for New York magazine, Silver created a quantitative index of "The Most Livable Neighborhoods in New York".[53]. Much like the Brad Pitt character in the movie "Moneyball" disrupted the old model of how to scout baseball players, Nate disrupted the traditional model of how to cover politics. pic.twitter.com/zz6C7dyVHU. Washington Post journalist Ezra Klein wrote: "There are good criticisms to make of Silver's model, not the least of which is that, while Silver is almost tediously detailed about what's going on in the model, he won't give out the code, and without the code, we can't say with certainty how the model works. That is, one in five visitors to the sixth-most-trafficked U.S. news site took a look at Silver's blog. "Nate Silver: Why Gun Rights Rhetoric Is Winning". [77], While publishing numerous stories on the Republican primary elections, in mid-February 2012 Silver reprised and updated his previous Magazine story with another one, "What Obama Should Do Next". Newhouse School of Public Communications, American Association for Public Opinion Research, List of self-identified LGBTQ New Yorkers, "The World's Most Influential People – The 2009 TIME 100", "Nate Silver: politics 'geek' hailed for Barack Obama wins US election forecast", https://digital.hbs.edu/platform-digit/submission/fivethirtyeight-and-the-big-data-fail-election-2016/, "Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else", "Presidential Election Results: Biden Wins", "Interfaith Celebrities: Nate Silver, Another Bond, and Happy Endings", "Answer This: Nate Silver - Patrick Gavin", University of Chicago (webpage feature story), January, 2009, FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver on life post-election, SXSW: Statistics guru Nate Silver talks Oscars, Manny Ramirez and President Obama, "Nate Silver Went Against the Grain for Some at The Times", Obama's win a big vindication for Nate Silver, king of the quants, "Slate's Pundit Scorecard: Pundits live to make predictions. "[61], On July 22, 2013, ESPN announced that it had acquired ownership of the FiveThirtyEight website and brand, and that "Silver will serve as editor-in-chief of the site and will build a team of journalists, editors, analysts and contributors in the coming months."[62]. Silver pointed out that FiveThirtyEight, which is a partner of ABC News, doesn’t conduct its own state polling, but “we try to prepare people to understand the chance that polls might be wrong.” Handicapping the 2012 Election". [12] The ESPN-owned FiveThirtyEight launched on March 17, 2014. [115], In 2009 through 2012, Silver appeared as a political analyst on MSNBC,[116] CNN[117] and Bloomberg Television,[118][119] PBS,[120] NPR,[121] Democracy Now!,[122] The Charlie Rose Show,[123] ABC News,[124] and Current TV. Plus, he has his Baseball Prospectus duties. Contribute. So in addition to written stories, we'll have interactive graphics and features.